What does withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement mean?
Donald Trump’s first days in office began by signing off a host of executive orders that rocked the boat of conventionality across economic, cultural and scientific norms - true to form to his previous administration.
On top of an executive order that dismissed all Diversity Equity and inclusion staff immediately on paid leave, Trump proceeded to sign an order in front of a Washington stage that addressed the UN directly, stating the USA’s intent to withdraw from its 2015 Paris climate treaty for the second time. Trump, in his order, suggested that withdrawal would begin with immediate effect, not respecting the one-year notice that is stipulated within the agreement.
This is part of the broader vision of the incoming administration that seeks to embrace greater production/usage of fossil fields, reverse current regulation on energy production and usage e.g. in mining and processing of raw materials and to reverse legislation targeted at promoting clean energy, such as those on electric vehicles tax credits and ending the leasing of land and water space for wind energy.
This policy comes at a time that wildfires continue to incinerate and cause havoc across regions in California, and the World Meteorological organization's startling revelation that 2024 was the hottest year on record, averaging approximately 1.55 degrees celsius above pre-industrial levels - a key benchmark to avoid as agreed in the Paris Climate agreement.
Despite this, Trump cites energy costs - (which is in part determined by the price of fossil fuels) as a key reason for rising inflation rates and the cost of living crisis and so has promised to ‘Drill,baby,drill’.
The real world impact of this withdrawal will be felt globally, with the US now set to abandon its commitment to cut its pollution by 66% within a decade and repealing its financial aid to poor, climate afflicted nations who have been experiencing greater heater waves and rising sea levels.
What does the Paris climate agreement require members to do?
The Paris climate agreement requires countries to set out transparent nationally determined contributions that work towards fulfilling its emissions reduction pledges - i.e. the goal of keeping average global temperature from rising more than 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, with a goal to keep it below 1.5 degrees. These must be updated periodically and the nation's approach must encourage a local and holistic approach across the economy in pursuit of these targets. stipulates a long list of commitments that signatories my accede to and takes into account environment, social, political and cultural contexts so as to make sure that action to pursue these climate based goals is equitable and reflects the growing need for funding help developing economies, and the recognition that these developing nations also face the greatest impact of climate change, whether this be through unpredictable/ inhospitable weather increasing food uncertainty, or increasing natural disasters/ water levels or heat waves in the global south.
Some Interesting commitments that this agreement stipulates as per the SDG framework are:
1. Parties should take action to conserve and enhance, as appropriate, sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse gases including forests.
2. Developed country Parties should continue taking the lead by undertaking economy-wide absolute emission reduction targets.
3. Developing country Parties should continue enhancing their mitigation efforts, and are encouraged to move over time towards economy-wide emission reduction or limitation targets in the light of different national circumstances.
4. Parties recognize the importance of support for international cooperation on adaptation efforts and the importance of taking into account the needs of developing country parties, especially those that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change.
5. Parties acknowledge that adaptation action should follow a country-driven, gender-responsive, participatory and fully transparent approach, taking into consideration vulnerable groups, communities and ecosystems, and should be based on and guided by the best available science and, as appropriate, traditional knowledge, knowledge of indigenous peoples and local knowledge systems, with a view to integrating adaptation into relevant socioeconomic and environmental policies and actions, where appropriate.
What is being done to challenge Trump's exit from the Paris climate agreement?
i) 24 state Governors sign pledge in open letter to the UN to continue working to achieve climate objectives
In defiance of the federal government, 24 states and territories, representing 54% of the population and 60% of the economy of the US have committed to continuing climate action within the US. The Governors of New York: Kathy Hochul and New Mexico: Michelle Lujan Grisham co-chair the ‘US climate alliance’, which seeks to secure a net-zero future, and to reduce collective greenhouse gas emissions by 26%, to 2005 levels by 2025. The committee is a cross-party alliance founded in 2017 to maintain the UN’s climate obligations and will work to undertake high impact climate action initiated and directed at the state level. Thankfully, the alliance intends to take this agenda to COP30, thus filling in a potentially USA-shaped gap courtesy of the Trump administration.
ii) Michael Bloomberg will fund the UN’s climate initiative to mitigate lost funding
Ex- New york mayor Michael Bloomberg has agreed to provide financial assistance to the UN’s climate organisation the UNFCCC in light of Trump’s move to withdraw the US from the agreement. Through his foundation Bloomberg Philanthropies, Bloomberg has committed to filling the gap in contributions that the US provides, thus making sure that the UN organisation remains ‘fully funded’ and able to carry out its mandate. The UNFCCC oversees that signatories are working towards the Paris climate targets and has running costs of around $96.5m, with the US under previous administrations contributing 22% of this.
The UN climate chief welcomed this move and highlighted these contributions' importance in allowing the secretariat of the UNFCCC to support states in working towards the climate targets.
Bloomberg has previously launched an initiative ‘America’s Commitments’, with the purpose of being able to monitor and report non-federal climate based commitments in the US, so as to show how the US populus were still working to be climate conscious.
iii) World leaders have reaffirmed their own commitments to the pursue climate commitments
Ursual Von der Leyen, of the European commission said that Europe will stay on course and work with all nationals to protect nature and to stop global warming. Wopke Hoekstra, the EU’s climate commissioner also echoed these sentiments and stated that they will still work with the US, as well as other international partners to address climate change, therefore, thankfully the aforementioned willing parties within the US will still have recourse to those still involved in the agreement. Crucially she believes that the climate agreement is strong and robust, with plenty of staying power, even despite this latest development.
Ed Miliband, the UK’s energy security and net zero secretary has declared his interest to find common ground with Trump and to reaffirm the administration of the importance of the commitments to the USA’s national interests. Furthermore, he communicated the sentiment of the UK government by saying ‘we are strong supporters of the Paris agreement’ and believe that the translation to clean energy is unstoppable.
Gina McCarthy, co-chairs of the climate coalition- America Is All in said: “By leaving the Paris Agreement, this administration has abdicated its responsibility to protect the American people and our national security, but rest assured, our states, cities, businesses, and local institutions stand ready to pick up the baton of U.S. climate leadership and do all they can — despite federal complacency — to continue the shift to a clean energy economy.”
Michael Bloomberg has also highlighted the positive response at the non federal level, echoing the sentiments of the US climate alliance, he said that “From 2017 to 2020, during a period of federal inaction, cities, states, businesses, and the public rose to the challenge to uphold our nation’s commitments – and now, we are ready to do it again,”.